U1 1

Pyramid of Probability – Paths and probabilities

Slide 3 von 6

Paths and probabilities

What is the relation between paths and probabilities?

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The particle reaches the first level via two possible paths – “White” and “Black” (□, ■). For each of the two possible paths on the first level, we can specify only a probability.

Four possible paths (□□, □■, ■□ and ■■) lead from the ground level to the second level. The balls from the “White – Black” and “Black – White” paths land in the same box.
The particle travels from the ground level to the third level via eight possible path combinations (□□□, □□■, □■□, □■■, ■□□, ■□■, ■■□ and ■■■). The probability of the particle staying in any of the four boxes always arises from the number of possible paths into the box concerned, which is divided by the total number of path combinations, that is, eight path combinations on the third level.

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